The ke to this system is the influence of the high pressure ridge. The models had the ridge moving offshore, hence, allowing frances to turn more northerly. However, to my knowledge, that hasn't happened.

Forward motion appears the same too...so, the track will stay about the same. Could be a sweeping slow turn to the north, and not anything generally quick to pick up.

Wonder what the update will show as far as intensity. Huge layer of purple convection wrapping around the storm, with the eye getting more and more concentric. Storm is intensifying.