Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 31 2004 02:45 PM
Re: ulls, high on wv, eye on visible, thanks jason...probs

Lois:

"First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder."

Because Miami is closer to the storm than WPB. Those probabilities only reflect the chance of the storm coming within 65 nm within 72 hours. Thus, Miami's odds on the NHC site will rise somewhat earlier than WPB's, because Miami will be in that 72-hour window several hours before WPB. Similarly, when the NHC was predicting that Charley would landfall near Tampa, the odds for cities farther South (e.g., Naples) went up before the odds for Tampa went up because most of the 3-day forecasts still had it south of Tampa.

So IF the forecast track remains the same, then the WBP odds should be slightly higher than Miami's odds in a day or two. However, because the two cities are not that far apart and because some of the same models that project a hit farther south would bring it within 65 nm of both cities, the odds for the two cities likely will not be that much different.



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