Thunderstorms aren't exactly easy to predict. You can predict a likelihood a day or two in advance, but the exact location is almost impossible until the day of the storm.

In any case...back on topic.

Frances is looking better on satellite imagery, if not exactly symmetrical with it's convection. With the eyewall cycle from yesterday back in the past and warm water/low shear ahead, strengthening is likely for a day or two at least. I would not be surprised to see the convection go more symmetric (it's there now, but ragged along the edges) and see the storm reach to near cat 5 status...probably not yet, but during the next diurnal max.

Track -- still the million dollar question. Due to liability issues, I can't give out the Superensemble material any more, so I apologize. I will say that it pretty much follows the NHC official track from last night, however, but is higher on intensity. I'd still trend a little to the left of that, but there is considerable uncertainty with the eventual track and I'm not buying the recurvature bit...not yet at least. The further south it makes landfall, the more people it will impact and the stronger it will be. Kinda obvious, yes, but worth repeating.

No idea about what's going on outside the Frances realm today, so I'll leave it at that.