Nope, not a stretch at all. Any prediction of landfall right now would be a SWAG. You can choose your word for S, but I'll use Silly Wild Ass Guess.

Even the NHC doesn't know, don't you think they would be telling us if they did? Has anyone read the recent discussions? There are still a lot of variables and unknowns, and we might not even have a good idea what is going to happen until Thursday. That is where a similarity with Andrew and Floyd comes into play, both of those were cliff hangers up until about two days out.

Bill