This reminds me of how I felt about Charley's track for the three-four days prior to landfall. I felt that the NHC had it's basic movement about right. What they couldn't tell was where exactly would Charley cross the coastline. I think Frances presents the same problem: the track to the WPB area seems right. A slow down, the ridge builds back in and wins round one pushing her into Florida somewhere, but how far north she gets is the question. Ridge then retreats with help from low moving into the Plains, allowing her to go along the western edge, or north thru the state. But the entry point could be anywhere from WPB to Daytona, IMO. I think the NHC's track in a day or two will end up looking pretty much like what the track at 11pm looked like, with some changes maybe in location, but not how she gets there.

Since these storms have such a sick sense of humor, find the spot on the east central coast with the most trailer parks, and that's where the darn thing will go in. It always seems that way.