One thing I have noticed is that almost every forecast has shown that the cain is suppossed to start a more northerly jaunt (45 degrees or so) but it has yet to do so. This is making me suspicious that the models have this cain too far north as many have suggested.

7 days before Charley hit I called for a Tampa hit. I was wrong by 40 miles. I couldn't get a feel on Frances until now - I think she is heading more south than we think - Miami to WBP. I think that the postor whose friend is retired from NOAA that posted here 3 days ago is going to be correct..

Miami to Ft. Meyers or WPB to Sarasota.. hooks right and up the Gulf.

Last night channel 10 news showed a graphic with the then current track heading towards Jax that Tampa would still see 85 - 100 mph winds. I think 110 - 130 is going to be more like it and if we see the west side of the storm and it slows to make it's turn, we might see some 10 feet of water here on the beaches too. I posted this earlier (thanks to Phil's help in me finding it) and will do so again - it shows the water surge in the Tampa area based on the size of the cain: http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov (you will need quicktime to see it)

I'm boarding up and outta here. Stay safe everyone.