(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM
Re:Frances and GOM

Assuming the BAM pakages(BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR) which are closely linked to the NHC, have been the moseliable in this system then expect the track to shift south and west again.
Actually searching today for the point of convergence between the eastern most influence otf the ULL and the western most subtropical ridge,which is where the storm will go in my opinion, gives credence to the UKMET and NOGAPS solutions.
The key for me today is the progress and transformation of the ULL which is now centered directly south of Florida, and the progress the storm has on pushjing that further west and south. So far the storm has elongated this ULL NE/SW, but there is still a point of vorticity just south of the tip of the peninsula.. As that point continues westward it serves to leave behind a ridge effect.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center