Hello: the ULL to the east of Frances has no effect what so ever on the future path of the storm. The path will be determined by the point of convergence of the ULL to the west and the ridge...the storm will follow that air flow...all the models point to that...the further the ULL west retrogrades the more likely the convergence will continue south.
I am actually on the central west coast where we DO NOT need this to come. In fact nobody needs this...it will finish the agricultural damage only begun by Charley to say nothing of the potential damage in lives and other property. This is not wish casting! But I am telling my associates that this system can and may cross the state and effect them on Saturday, which IS NOT being broadcast by the media here as they rely solely on the NHC guidance for advice.
To me the NOGAPS and UKMET look all to reasonable to ignore...that's all I am saying here.