SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 01 2004 04:27 PM
Re:Frances and GOM

FRI NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15
FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SUN
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


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Above is an excerpt from NWS Charleston coastal forecast as of 9:42 this morning. The forecast for the Beaufort SC area is for "very windy" conditions Sat nite, Sunday.

I am very confused. The NWS local forecast didn't pick up on winds for Gaston until shortly before they were on top of us. I realize "possible" means just that, but is there not more confidence in the NHC forecast track at this hour, than in the last several days, because the models have begun to converge??

As of last night, I was packing to leave the coast (Hilton Head Island), as early as tomorrow am, to avoid the gridlock of mandatory evacuation, which was pretty widely rumored to be coming on Friday. This morning, I adopted more of a "wait and see" thought process. Frankly, moving inland could be putting me closer to the storm, if the NHC track verifies.

Anyone smarter than me have any suggestions, other than moving to Kansas??



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