what the guy says usually carries more weight, because he EXPLAINS the forecast reasoning, not just an issuance of statements. first convincing argument i've heard from the nhc for the central florida track they've been pointing to for the last day or two.
with the explanation of why the half of the forecast models i was betting on are possibly in error.. my track confidence (to georgia) is down quite a bit. going down with the ship, as far as that goes.. a lot less to wreck in coastal ga though, it is perhaps the best of options.
my earlier comments notwithstanding, if i was on the florida coast from west palm to st. augustine, i would be ready to evacuate by tomorrow afternoon. everybody out of the pool. if the storm does make a gulf appearance (even a brief one in apalachee bay) the damage swath will be extended quite a bit, though i doubt the gulf side of florida would get near the hurt the atlantic side would.
the eye symmetry is improving, and as stewart mentioned the lower humidity environment that may have been checking frances is becoming a thing of the past. expect the storm to deepen overnight, 8-12mb or so.
elsewhere, 97L did get tagged a 1.0, and it's convection is still refiring with vigor.. it has been an unclassified depression, perhaps nhc will take the plunge if it can get out of the high shear environment somewhat intact. most globals recurving it, but i'm entertaining the idea of a mostly westward track.
98L may develop more quickly than 97L. deep convection is maintaining with this feature. global runs tending to take it to the caribbean.. or at least close.
weak disturbance near the nc coast may be the one caveat that can right-bias frances. not holding my breath, and not wishcasting it, but i'm not one to ignore possibilities, even remote ones.
synopsis.. frances crow may be appearing on my menu for friday.. likely another storm or two by early next week.. and a very dangerous situation for florida, if it comes to pass, inside 72 hours.
HF 0306z02september