(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 02 2004 12:50 PM
Re: It Shifts Left


Just curious, what did Floyd's track look like a 24 hours before it turned? Were the majority of tracks in agreement that it would go into Florida or what?

I definitely don't see this turning at this point, but local mets are still telling us it could happen.

The weather pattern for Floyd was much different than it is for Frances. With Floyd the strong trof was forecasted to push through, and it was basically a wait to see how close Floyd was going to get before the trof picked it up. Right now most of the emphasis is placed on the strong high pressure ridge to the north of Frances. Many models had it in a weakened state by now, allowing Frances to turn NW. However, like Stewart(starting to become a fan of his as well) said in the 11pm NHC update. The ridge seems to be significantly stronger than the earlier forecasts had it, and that's one reason why the track shifted to the west. Whether or not the ridge weakens or strengthens more will help determine if Frances slows down and where she'll make landfall. Remember many of the models had this storm crossing 75w at, or maybe a shade north, of 25n. Right now it appears that Frances will pass to the south of that, and if that's the case the models could shift over to the west a little more.

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