Here is the midday update from my friend Thomas:

Looking at the latest satellite images and RECON data CAT 4 Frances continues on a 285-290 heading at approximately 13 mph. Outflow looks excellent except I see a little impingement on the WNW side, maybe a little shear and/or dry air. Overall Frances continues with a slow pressure fall and increase in wind speed. She may flirt with CAT 5 status for a while later today.

Looking at all of the models, virtually all have come further west with a landfall somewhere along the Florida coast. Some of my colleagues that I respect very much still forecast a probable miss for the Florida east coast. Of course I hope that they are correct and while I understand their thinking I think that chance is virtually nil now.

It appears at the moment that Palm Beach is the Frances bullseye, the southern end of my predicted landfall window. BUT my original forecast landfall of Ft. Lauderdale-Miami may ultimately still verify. Also in my opinion a westward track through the Florida Keys and/or the Florida Straits is more probable then a NW-N track east of Florida.

A landfall at Palm beach would mean a probable CAT 4-3 hurricane across the inland central peninsula including the Orlando metro area, a region with millions of people and unfathomable billions of $$$ of property and then possibly into south Georgia. At this moment it's to early to tell where Frances would exit at into the Gulf Of Mexico "if" she comes ashore in the Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window. My guess would be pretty much a straight line to Naples-Fort Myers, then on to Texas, with a lesser chance of an exit at Venice-Sarasota then on to Louisiana.

That's my .02 for today but what do I know?!

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL