for about six hours frances' eyewall convection has been lopsided, and i'm sure the storm has weakened. even without recon, the satelite presentation isn't category four anymore. it's 2/3 right now. rather large fluctuation in intensity, no? something i hadn't really seriously considered (perhaps because its occurence is often inexplicable).. that the storm may in fact 'magically' weaken as it closes on the coast.. could be in play. right now it looks like a stream of subsidence got into the eyewall and is killing the convection ring in places.. in others it is enhanced to compensate.. net result being an irregular, filled eye and a less intense storm.
this strange illogic, that strong hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach landfall, has blocked several storms from being catastrophic in recent years (floyd, lili, isabel to name a few). the official line on frances may take her down a notch later this evening.. but of course the storm has 36-48 hours to regain its composure.
so, if any of you people are out there stressing yourselves to death over the uncertainty with this system, enjoy the new stuff. assuming the worst is the safest path, but take solace in the fact that the worst has a way of evaporating when it comes to hurricanes.
t.d. 9 in the picture now, and the initial prog taking it due west at high speed looks a bit fishy to me. my thought is that more poleward movement will happen as it passes wrinkles in the upper ridge.. and that it moves more poleward anyway due to strength. that 70kt intensity shown has modesty written all over it, if the storm can deepen without accelerating to insane speeds.
don't forget 97L. it's slowed and a bit of ridging will build over it from the east, knock the shear back to where it can consolidate. i've argued that it already HAS developed, but now i'm going to go with it will develop as per nhc classification.. and move north and northeast out into the north atlantic.
HF 2234z02september