I personally see four scenarios. One is the current forecast. I give it about 50%. Two is that Frances continues on current track; but is cat 2 or less at landfall. 20% Three is that show moves more northerly, weakening as she goes and enters north of the Cape to GA/SC border at cat 1/2. 10%

Fourth scenario is the one that still concerns me. All of the above are still huge rain events; but the wind event is diminsished. The fourth is the biggest question. A stall after it gets to the Gulf Stream for extended period of time. Thus, allowing the dynamics to improve and rebuild back to Cat 4 after which the path is a who knows. 20%

Those are my ideas. Not changing my preps at all though.