What an answer to prayer! Frances has weakened considerably despite everyone's assurance that she be a CAT IV when making landfall. I appreciate the post last night (from Agent B) that first noted the increasing shear coming from W. Cuba.
Previously, NHC would not intensify the storm prior to landfall. Now that Frances has weakened, they are going against guidance and trying to strengthen it again, but with low confidence of course. Our biggest challenge in forecasting "mother nature" is human nature!
Frances has weakened considerably, but is still a force to be reckoned with - a minimal CAT III storm with destructive winds along the coast, widespread heavy rain, heavy surf, flooding, tornadoes, etc. It's the Bahamas which have taken the brunt of this one, and they will need help.
"Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."