MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 03 2004 11:54 AM
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit

I may be new to posting here, but I would like to put some things into perspective. First, I have been an amateur forecaster (High School, College, and hobby) since I was a little kid, over 30 years ago. Back then, the computer models were much more inferior than the ones of today, and there has been a tremendous improvement in all forecasts. Will it ever be 100% accurate? No. The atmosphere is too complex, data over the ocean is more sparse, and there are too many variables that can occur many miles away from a storm that can have downstream effects. Also, hurricanes are on a smaller scale than mid-latitude cyclones, which makes it more difficult.
In situations like this, someone is always going to be scared and not see its worst. I would rather have that, than not be scared, and take a direct hit. Putting myself in the shoes of a forecaster, lives are at stake, and I would want to do everything I can to prevent the loss of them. If that means warning an area too large, so be it. Again, I am not affilliated with any forecasters, just my perspective.
I certainly hope the new ETA is right and it keeps the thing offshore until it gets farther north, because I feel it will have a difficult time regenerating due to its large circulation encountering land.
Many of us here (I think) like to like to try to learn, and challenge ourselves to hit a forecast. The final answer to any weather forecasts lies with the NWS.

Having said all that, I wish everyone in the path well, and prayers, and peace.



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