ignoring the dynamic models that show quick recurvature, not interested in the gfs (other than the storm getting caught off the east coast.. think that means something, if not it's literal interpretation).. rest of the globals which are harping on jamaica to western cuba to the west coast of florida... have my attention.
instead of focusing on five days from now, going to think of future events as a trickle-down effect from what happens between now and saturday. if the storm goes right of jamaica.. the storm be a south/east coast of florida to hatteras threat. probably a cat 3.
run it over or just west of jamaica and the storm will be a fluctuating cat 3/4 threat for the west coast of florida.. this is where my confidence is right now... though it may be mimicking frances and weakening late in the game.
further west (like, yucatan channel) and the storm's potential spread is from the panhandle to north mexico. in this scenario, likely an irregular track and unpredictable timeframe. there's also that far out shot at ivan keeping to the far left and plowing into central america.. doesn't fly in my mind, but it's happened enough so that i never casually remove the prospect from mind.
jamaica may be hit by a category 5 hurricane on friday. this is not good.
HF 0226z09september