| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 11 2004 03:46 AM |
|
Re: Ivan and Florida
|
Quote:
I'm a little confused tonight as to where the forecast is going with this Hurricane. I see the NHC sticking with a track to the panhandle, and then I see Joe B insistant on a West Coast landfall, along with the Accuweather forecast. I do respect both forecasts but each has different implications for the peninsula. What is it that NHC sees that JB doesn't or what is it that JB sees that NHC doesn't? What do the other Mets thing about this? (Ed, JK, Clark and others).
And as for this " A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING IVAN INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA." .
I addressed this in the previous forum but my reasoning was quickly drowned out by "The NHC wouldn't do that on purpose!" I stand my ground.
I believe it is a case of Psychology vs. Meteorology. I believe the NHC considers West coast of FL most likely landfall area. But in order to say so, they have to plant a "dart" somewhere on the map. When that happens, the rest of Florida relaxes somewhat. I don't believe they feel confident enough of any landfall site to allow the rest of FL to let down their guard even a little bit. Remember Charley? Folks screamed loudly "We thought it was hitting Tampa!"
Just my .02 cents on this. Joe Bastardi can afford to be a little mouthier than the NHC. Too many lives are in their hands for them to possibly lead some into complacency anywhere along the coast.