Posted on the last thread, reposted here.

On several of the tv stations here they were saying that the forecasts were all based on the assumption that Ivan would beat the trough (jet stream?) currently moving down to the northwestern Gulf. More to the point, they said it was a race with respect to what arrived in the GOM first, the trough or Ivan. If the trough gets here first, the forecast shifts back to the right, if not, it stays where it is. Any thoughts on what is "winning"? I'm a little concerned that Ivan doesn't seem to be in any hurry at the moment. I don't like it when I hear things like it's a race, and steering currents are weak once past Cuba. That usually doesn't bode well for last minute preparations (still remembering Charley's quick turn at the last minute). Don't get me wrong, we have all our supplies, etc, but...would rather not have a last minute panic if it heads our way.