AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS LED
TO MORE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS
VERY WET SCENARIO FOR MONDAY...I FEEL IT WENT TOO FAR ON THE DRY
SIDE THIS TIME...THUS KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST (40% SOUTHEAST...TRENDING TO 20 NORTHWEST).

IVAN IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT AS OF 12Z THAN IT WAS AT 6Z. SPREAD IS NOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN BILOXI MS AND APALACHEE BAY FL. OFFICIAL TRACK IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS A
TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK HAS BEEN EVIDENT. OUR MAIN
CONCERN IT THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES WHICH I FEE IT WILL. A
LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN FL OR EVEN AL WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE IMPACT TO CENTRAL AL. THE KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
THIS TRACK IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN. LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE A BIT CONCERNING IN THAT
THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ALREADY BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COULD BE STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IF THIS IS INDEED
THE CASE...A LANDFALL MUCH FURTHER WEST WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WHICH LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHEREVER ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IVAN WINDS UP...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL AL LATE WED AND THURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND AROUND 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD
ENCOMPASS AN AREA FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS...TO TALLAHASSEE.