(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 13 2004 06:20 AM
Re: NHC Probability Chart Question...

It is standard procedure to make an effort to follow continuity in forecasting future plots of hurricanes; though I disagree with the tactic. Models have been off on this storm several days and with each passage push the track west. You read like the current advisory 13/10Z - Track guidance ( a number of hurricane models predicting coordinates) never agree with each other from run to run except within 72 hours of landfall. That guidance normally allows the NHC to take the track right down the middle. When you don't see the change, you'll here the NHC say right of guidance or left... That's continuity. You don't want forecasters saying Key West get ready, and suddenly on the next run - Mobile, AL instead. They do so very gradually in the case of a sudden course change and simply common sense!

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