Recon reports have the pressure up to 930mb this morning, meaning the storm has weakened a bit. Probably to low cat 4 / high 3 levels (Shear seems to be gaining). It's hard to say if this is a trend or not or a eyewall cycle that it will recover from. Monitoring the recon repors and satellite images will help there. The 11AM NHC advisory should be interesting. The pressure rise indicates it probably won't recover to Category 5 levels, at least not soon.
Also TD#11 is very likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne at 11.
Still a category 5, Hurricane Ivan is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Watches are up from Morgan City, Louisiana to St. Marks in Florida, including New Orleans. The forecast track shifted a little west as well.
Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.
Image thanks to Skeetobite
The entire Watch area needs to prepare for a major hurricane.
More to come later.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
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Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.