One thing I should have mentioned is that the ETA has been a western outlier, which is a bias it has with nor'easters also. The 6z run from this morning had the center much closer to the Yucatan Pen., and it ended up on the tip of Cuba. At some point, it won't be far west like it has been, but I would hesitate using this model (or any model in isolation) for the landfall. I can't wait to see what the GFS did with this, and I agree with you re: the NHC. I would also note that except for a warm eddy over the N. Cent. Gulf, the warmer waters are more shallow than in the Carib., and depth does matter. The question is, will it be significant here. I don't have that answer.