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Thank you, and I must say, after dealing with the LFM for years, the ETA looks great comparitively-but, it still has its problems. I remember a forecast I had to make up in NJ where the LFM called for 18 inches of snow, and the NGM nothing. Nothing won. The rule of thumb was to halve the QPF. Now, the GFS is the one with the gridscale feedback problem. Having said all of that, I actually like the GFS a lot, but I must acknowledge its recent difficulties, especially since its bias was usually the other way. One last thing on the ETA-I think a couple of years ago, they made adjustments to the model to try to improve its forecasts. That may be so, but it still seems to have trouble with tropical systems. |