I really, really hate to go against a tight clustering of models by many miles, but I think I'm going to have to once again. I would like to note that the models, as a whole, have been performing poorly with Ivan. NHC forecast errors at 5 days are on the order of 335 miles; most models are even higher. Even the FSU Superensemble is at 250 miles. Three day errors are nothing to write home about either. But, all in all, that's not a justification for going against the models.

However, it does appear that Ivan has made the turn to the north-northwest...and I don't think there's any turning back now. Looking at water vapor imagery, that shortwave trough over the SE United States is only slowly progressing to the east. It's also not done digging, as evidenced by the surge of dry air into the northern Gulf south of New Orleans. Furthermore, back over Texas, the ridge continues to build...enhanced to a *small* degree by Hurricane Javier. The crest of the ridge extends into southern Oklahoma and continues to rise northward, partially in response to the Pacific NW trough moving eastward and pumping up the ridge. This, in turn, is impacting the shortwave over the SE US, causing it to slide further south than models or observations have predicted.

Enhancing this notion is the elongation N-S of the cloud pattern and moisture field associated with Ivan. Once storms start to elongate in this fashion, the turn is either imminent or taking place. The motion of Ivan recently, despite some wobbles, has been just slightly west of north-northwest. With the digging trough, I believe a large westward component of motion is over and the storm should gradually begin to turn to the NNE by landfall. If this storm gets west of 86-86.5°W...well, I just can't see that happening right now, but am willing to be proven wrong. The eastern ridge is eroding and the storm is gradually turning. Also note that there is a weak shortwave rounding the west side of the trough in the SE US; as of 12a, it is located NW of Memphis, TN. If anything, this will both serve to slow the forward movement of the trough and cause it to dive just a bit further south.

Truthfully, I don't see any reason to significantly change my landfall forecast from yesterday. I will nudge it a tad westward to Panama City Beach -- sorry Jason -- but leave the window the same, if not narrow it to the AL/FL line to Apalachicola. This excludes the NHC track and while I am quite reluctant to do so, I'm just not buying in to what the models are selling.

Before even going into the intensity forecast then, I do want to reiterate that the NHC and its forecasters are the professionals. Always take their word in a time of extreme emergency, as this is shaping up to be. But, they issued hurricane watches for a large area tonight because they are not certain where this is going. Everyone from NO to St. Marks needs to watch this storm...any slight deviation will result in a significant change in landfall location.

Intensity -- well, despite less than stellar satellite appearances, Ivan's intensity has remained way up there. Pressure fell down to 910mb earlier in the day, while the height of the 700mb surface fellow below 2300m. That's low, folks. As the storm begins to move north, outflow on the NE side will become enhanced but the western side of the storm will begin to erode to a small degree. It won't be enough to spare the coastline a major hurricane, but it should knock the intensity down some. While surface waters are largely untouched and are very warm over the east central Gulf, the depth of the warm water is not particularly high except over parts of the north central Gulf, where there is a warm eddy. The storm should maintain its current intensity up to the next eyewall replacement cycle, followed by gradual weakening with a slight increase in relative shear and slightly less energy off of the Gulf waters. Near coast, the weakening trend may well subside due to the warm eddy. I think we are looking at a mid-cat 3 storm at landfall, somewhere around 110kt. Anywhere from a borderline 2/3 to a borderline 3/4, maybe even low 4, is fair game at this time however.

Preparations should be rushed to completion along the northern Gulf, as things are about to get crazy in these parts...if they haven't already.

I hope no news agency is being definitive with this storm, nor are they hyping it up. Unfortunately, many probably are. This is a very dangerous storm, but it is not going to xxxx area just because you want it to. Be safe, take the necessary precautions, and remember that this storm is as unpredictable as they come. While I feel somewhat confident in my analysis, it's not enough to exclude any part of the Gulf coast.