Disclaimer: I am not a Met, I do not have the learning to make an accurate forecast if the storm was on top of me, I just might say it's sunny and clear. With that said...

Right now, my fear, once again, is the idea that people may start dropping their guard when weather forecasters say, "this storm is not a threat." A cat 5 storm in the gulf of mexico is a threat to anyone and everyoe on the Gulf Coast. With the terrible performance of the models up to this point (has any model managed to predict this storm with any consistancy yet????) I'm even less inclined to trust any model that takes a storm one way or another. In fact, until the storm started turning more north, I was seriously debating if just extrapolating the movement would be more accurate than any model runs.

But now, the storm has started to recurve. An interesting thing I'd heard a while back: Storms tend to follow a parabolic or Hyperbolic path. Which to me, means North East. But when?

So,by logic, this would mean to me, the storm has nearly reached the furthest possible westward movement. Also by this logic, once the storm begins it's Eastward componant, it'll move into a ENE motion at some point.

Everything hinges on when.

And, at this point, I don't even want to think when....

Go Falcons! 1-0
Mark