I have to disagree with you about the models. I am the one who has been posting that they are better now than 20 years ago, and that is a fact. I used models 20 years ago, even more than I do now. I was thrilled to be able to see a 72 hour MRF back then. There were no ensembles that I know of. Do they have errors? Yes, they ALWAYS will. But, remember the ones they get right, and not only the ones they have trouble with. Some error is to be expected. Many forecasters don't even have experience forecasting a storm like this. These are too few and far between.
I will take the ETA or GFS any day over the LFM.
As I said before, the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts. That shows they can now go out 67% farther in time with the same error, and that IS an improvement.