The current situation with the storm is that its circulation has captured much of that dry air trailing the trough along the coast and is rapidly pulling it into its western circulation. This will cause furthere weakening and its cat V and IV hours are limited if not over.
i guess the current thinking of the forecast into the central gulf coast incuded the assumption that the storm was so big and powerful it could actuall push the convergence point between the lower pressure trough and the ATL ridge north, but if it weakens some that may not occur. that point has been set up around 27N and 87west for the past couple of days and the upper air flow is radically ene from there into the big bend area. I still suspect land fall could be around Apalacheecola as I stated yesterday especially if a smaller and weaker Ivan is more likely to be influenced by these upper air flows.