Yesterday's deep south mid level shortwave trough turned Hurricane Ivan from a WNW to NNW-N heading for a number of hours. But as the shortwave trough raced NE'ward faster then I though it would, Ivan settled back into a NNW heading. Also evident on satellite imagery is a shortwave high pressure ridge now over the deep south in place of the departed shortwave trough.

I now cancel my Apalachicola to Cedar Key landfall forecast. A Biloxi, MS to Pensacola, FL landfall window is probable with a bulls eye on another shallow and vulnerable estuary called Mobile Bay.

In the nearer term I do expect a continued slowing of the forward speed on the NNW track and also continued shearing and dry air entrainment and therefore weakening. It is possible that the deepening mid level longwave trough now over the western U.S. will move eastward fast enough into the Midwest region to turn Ivan onto NNE-NE with a landfall somewhere between Panama City and Apalachicola but that scenario has a low probability.

In the mid term Ivan may once again grow to CAT 5 status as he passes across the near 90 deg. F loop current in the central Gulf Of Mexico, much like Opal in 1995. I think Ivan will landfall as a CAT 4-3 cyclone. Though most of the Florida panhandle and west coast of the peninsula should not be directly impacted, a significant storm surge should occur west of Apalachicola, with a moderate to minor storm surge as far east and south as the Tampa Bay region.

We now have Tropical Storm Jeanne (GADS!!!) in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands. She is still rather weak and on a general WNW track at approximately 10 mph. In the near term she should threaten the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. In the mid and late term a Hurricane Jeanne will threaten a huge window between Havana, Cuba and North Carolina. I've had no time to really look closely at a probable forecast track but my initial impressions would be a beeline for the T & C Islands/Bahama Islands and the S.E. coast of Florida, then a hopeful turn NW-N east of Florida.

All this hurricane stuff is putting a crimp in my regular salt water fishing forays!!!!!

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL