I'll have more on Ivan later, but if JB is harping on a major hurricane in Gloria with the wave exiting Africa...he's lost what little respect I might've had for him before now.

Best line I've heard with Jeanne is about the model tracks: "anything with a G to start its name is turning it north, the others are west." That's what we've heard with every other Atlantic hurricane thus far...what's to stop this one? It'll likely sit near the Bahamas for a day or two down the line and be one to watch; even if it turns NW or N, a ridge is forecast to build in by most of the models and turn it back west. Where? No idea as of yet and probably a week+ away. Let's watch Ivan first.

Of which, the current westward movement seems to be more of an eyewall replacement moreso than anything and there is still the very real possibility for this thing to come in further east than anticipated. There is also the possibility that it slows to a crawl over the central Gulf if it gets caught in the col region. Everyone in the warning area - yes, even to Apalachicola and points a bit further east - needs to watch this one. The slower it moves, the greater likelihood it goes east.

The 18z models all trended further east with this storm than at 12z...which were further east than at 00z. Just something to watch. More later...