Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 15 2004 02:12 AM
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico

I want to reiterate what Phil has been posting in this thread and others today and remind everyone to not underestimate this storm.

The concern expressed is valid -- this storm is a monster that will make landfall as a major hurricane, likely somewhere between 125-145mph. Just because this storm is not a category 5 does not mean that it will not affect many lives. Category 3 and 4 storms can and do cause great amounts of damage. Ivan has already changed countless lives in the Caribbean forever -- and sadly taken over 60 of them in Grenada, Jamaica, and Cuba alone.

The wind field on this storm is so large and the size and forward motion of it such that flooding is a major concern that this storm is not one to take lightly. Better to be overprepared than underprepared -- better safe than sorry -- and you never know what one burst of convection or one wobble in the track could do. This storm is not a point; while areas near the eye will likely be devestated, so too will many areas 100+ miles on both sides of the eye. Places well inland are going to see their property ruined from high waters; places along the shore are going to see storm surge ruin their beaches and affect their property as well.

If the wind field holds true, as shown in SkeetoBite's graphics, many, many people are going to be feeling high winds with this storm. While the majority of you understand how serious this situation is, I'm just trying to reach the minority who may feel that the concern is unwarranted. Hype in this case is unwarranted -- as SNONUT said in his latest post, this isn't going to put New Orleans underwater -- but concern and preparation is not.

This storm is forecast to make landfall in a relatively populous area with an intensity not seen in the region for many years. The damage seen from Charley is going to be spread out and multiplied over a much larger area if the intensity holds -- as it is projected to do -- while the inland concerns are only going to exacerbate what has already happened as a result of Frances and Gaston.

Take heed of all warnings out there and be prepared. This storm isn't one to mess with.



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