That's the argument Accuweather is making... one other note on this the TPC discussion references the FSU superensemble models also doing this. during ivan I can remember at least one reference by the NHC/TPC that remarked on how reliable that model had performed in forecasting Ivan.
The main argument is that many of the models sample from the tropical and subtropical regions only and do not register well at all what the temperate regions are doing.
With the gales from ivan for example...those result from an interaction of Ivan and a high pressure area in the temperate zone.. It is this high that is supposed to block Ivan and push it back to the wsw on the weekend. It is this factor he says is not being properly weighed in the usual model runs that TPC is relying upon.
I don;t know but it makes good discussion fodder.
Don't be to harsh on Accuweather...I'm sure if they did not actually believe what they wrote, they certainly would not publically isswue such an outlook just to scare people.