Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 17 2004 04:27 PM
Re: Ho hum

It isn't just you!

Here are about three scenarios for Jeanne. I'm not going to say which one I believe the most, just present them for all of you, mainly because I haven't the foggiest idea what is going to happen beyond 2 days or so (a slow motion WNW-NW, assuming the storm does not get torn apart by Hispaniola).

1) Ivan moves as projected by the last NHC paths, diving southward in the Carolinas. Ivan has the potential to move off shore into the Gulf Stream, as predicted by a couple of the models (GFS, Eta) this morning, while Jeanne is drawn northward by the boundary associated with Ivan. The two systems come close enough to each other to result in a partial fujiwhara effect, resulting in Ivan being drawn S & SW along the eastern coast of SC & Ga and Jeanne being slingshot north & NE, then NW towards the Outer Banks & Delmarva.

2) Ivan moves NE with the predominant flow, being picked up by the trough entering the eastern US and sparing the Appalachians a major flooding event. The boundry dropped behind the storm is enough to...
a) Steer the storm northward, possibly grazing the Outer Banks.
b) Result in a slightly more northward component to motion, but not recurving the storm. This would likely result in...
i) A continued NW motion to landfall.
ii) A westward turn at the end of the period as the ridge from the north builds south and around the storm.
c) Have no impact on the storm and leave it in a region of weak steering currents, sending it WNW to the edge of the subtropical ridge.

3) Jeanne gets ripped apart over Hispaniola and continues W/WNW with the predominant low-level flow as an open wave/inverted trough.

4) Ivan has no impact on Jeanne, leaving the storm to its own devices in the short-term and up to a later trough to pick up the storm in the long-term. This is pretty much the same scenario as in iii) above.

I'll leave it up to you all to determine which one you feel is most likely, as all bets are off here right now. I will say that I don't see i) as very likely -- but is certainly possible. Given the way this season has gone, who knows. In any event, everyone from the Keys to Hatteras & the Delmarva needs to watch this one.



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