Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 18 2004 09:06 AM
Model Run Down and Trends

I'm just going to do a short overview on some of the main models and their trends.

ETA-has Ivan pushing off the mid-atlantic states and then diving SE to S later on. There is a tilted trough in the west and a high ampltidu ridge in the east. Then by Sunday the movement becomes NE as the ridge digs down.

GFDL- has Jeanne by 26.5N , 57 W by Thursday far away from land.

GFS- has Ivans remmants coming back down to Florida and crossing the Florida peninsula and then back into the GOM. Also, the GFS has Jeanne doinng flips and the next two storms recurving!

NOGAPS- also has Jeanne doing a flip, then heading in the direction of Florida.

The overall trend of the models is now east of the NHC forecast, will they put a flip in their forecast. This is one forecast for the NHC, they have a lot of variables with this one.



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