WOW Andrew anyone? well not the strength but Im still going on the andrew track, just 150 miles north. Anyways you all look at the 12z model runs yet? Theyre now in line with my thinkning over the last week. Infact the Nogaps takes it right into Melbourne,florida and into the Gulf near Tampa. GFS takes it to about 28N and 79W or 30N and 80W and brings close to hurricane force winds along to coast near Merrit Island N....only 50 miles offshore. CMC dont go out more then 72 but is online with a Melbourne target but cant tell if it will brush the coast or go inland,,,,anyways the models adjust a little more to the SW on the runs. I also just to note the CMC did a jog to the WNW or NW during the loop in the first 24 hrs so it might be just a tad to far north on the run which would bring it along with the Nogaps. Now Stewart mentioned the Nogaps and (as of now) is disregarding it and says its due to the ridge hanging on alittle longer then the rest of the models, but I dont see that as the case, its just that the ridge will be stronger to the N so it weakens 24 hrs later to that of the GFS (which is still a northern byest model). So since the ridge will be just a tad stronger, it will push Jeanne just alittle faster as you see in the hrs on 36-108. Nogap makes landfall about 12 hrs sooner. So basically what Im saying is that the Nogaps has a stronger ridge so it moves Jeanne just a tad faster, bringing her onshore. For the first 24 hrs the models are in agreement on a sw-w path with the CMC having a jog N in the 24-36hr. Then a w path.
Im still not saying its going onshore for the best of my knowledge and info but its a timing call. Will Jeanne move 10-12mph starting Thursday afternoon to the west or move 8mph (abouts) to the west. Its timing folks. Anyways hurricane watches should be posted for the northern Bahamas by tomorrow morning, maybe as early as 11pm tonight. BTW I havnt seen the UKMET run yet.