At 62, please allow me a little senility...I was working from memory but I equated 'ala Andrew' as implying a similar track. I wasn't seeing the similarity up to the coast line of Florida then a turn, albeit 150 miles north of the MIA area. That clarified, you and I are in substantially similar mind-sets. I am not a serious amateur forecaster with your skills so I feel good that I'm even in your ballpark, forecastwise. While I teach aviation weather, that is nowhere near the skills needed to make tropical weather forecasts. Just enough to keep my student pilots weather-savvy enough to avoid flying into a thunderstorm or squall line. But, in my lifetime, I've seen a lot of weather and through observation more than education, I do often form correct, or nearly so, opinions as to what is likely to happen. This season has not helped my reputation of making good forecasts regarding these storms, but it has helped me make some good decisions about getting out of Dodge in a timely manner this season. Keep up the good work Scott, you give this site (along with a notable few others) a real good reputation for making good forecasts. Often as good as the pros, occasionally better. A big differance between the more weather literate of our members, unlike most of the NHC forecasters (maybe Stewart excepted) is that your and their forecasts explain *why* it will likely happen. The NHC and most of the pros just say 'this is the way it will be'. Jason, as a pro, and a valuable member of this forum, does a good job with the 'why'....when he has time and isn't ducking tornados. Again, keep up the good work....right or wrong, you are an asset to this forum. Thankfully, you are quite often right.