Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 23 2004 05:38 AM
Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant)

I must respectfully disagree.

The storm that is now Ivan can be traced back to the remnants of Ivan. The energy from the storm split off into two pieces -- one that raced northeastward into the Atlantic, and another that dove south and westward, dragging down a lot of dry air with it. The surface circulation may not have remained with this piece of energy, but that is not one of the qualifications to reclassify a storm with the same name; after all, it happens all of the time with depressions and storms that weaken to waves and then regenerate, and happened just this year with TD 2/Bonnie. Regardless, the energy associated with Ivan rode around the ridge of high pressure, acquired tropical characteristics once again, and redeveloped into Ivan. It is similar to Mitch of 1998 -- another storm which, after making landfall, split into two distinct pieces of energy, one of which came through the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm (again named Mitch) and the other of which skirted the coast of Mexico on the Pacific side and never developed. They are not breaking their own climatology; they are, in fact, going with precedent.

The 11pm discussion clearly states what happened with Lisa and 93L and an analysis of the satellite imagery serves to back this up. The convection associated with Lisa died off, while the low-level center stalled, moved slightly east, and began to redevelop convection along the periphery of the old 93L. A QuikSCAT scatterometer pass earlier today showed two distinct centers, both of about the same size and magnitude, connected by a trough extending ESE out of Lisa. It has become apparent during the evening that Lisa's circulation won out, but that the convective energy associated with the other wave (93L) was drawn into the Lisa circulation after it's own convective energy was dissipated due to shearing effects. Plus, Lisa gradually grew in scope throughout the day and was not the 3 times smaller that you claim than 93L. The two systems merely interacted and the circulation from Lisa won out -- that's why it's still Lisa and not Matthew or Nicole or anything else.

NHC is doing a fine job, IMO, and especially considering they only had one lead forecaster to handle operations this evening.



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