I think this is best answered like this.... I can pretty well guarantee my forecast for the next 10-30 minutes will be accurate. I have no clue about next year this time. Translation, the further into the future you forecast, the more likely it is a WAG or maybe an EWAG and therefore stands a good chance of being inaccurate. So, given the forecast affects us in just about 3 days, the forecast is getting more accurate. Also given that the turn to the north is from 3-5 days, it is much less certain and likely to be wrong. However, it takes time to make and implement our plans so bhe best thing you can do is pretend the forecast you have is gospel and pray it isn't as bad as it seems. Time restraints dictate that.

WIth that said, Tonight we probably know much more accurately than we do right now and by tomorrow morning, it could be relatively accurate, maybe 50-100 miles, maybe less. Remember Charley; As recently as 5-6 hours before landfall, the forecast was wrong 50-100 miles, but at least, those that were in the cone of uncertainty were 'sort of' expecting it. Just always remember, landfall isn't a point because the hurricane isn't a point. It affects a large area. Sneak in a look-see on this board as often as you can, make plans early and ACT on them as if your life depended on it and most important of all, get authoritative, official information above all and do what they say. We pay them big-bucks in taxes to work for us and be the experts.

I know it's not the answer (as in what time tonight will we know), but it is hopefully a good answer.

P.S. WAG - Wild A$$ed Guess and the E means Educated