| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:32 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
|
Quote:
The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS
DRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
RECURVATURE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
AND GFS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN
THE FIRST 12 HR.
Quote:The above exerpt from the NHC discussion would support your warning to not hold our breath that we will be missed. The forecasts by others in this forum indicating a crossing of the state and out to the GOM look more and more possible. Scottvp predicts a coastal, just inland, route maybe slightly west of the now official track. Your warning that it could go anywhere is most appropriate. Keep up the good work, you are saving lives with this baard, you know that, don't you?
Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.