Oh, I absolutely agree, without reservation I agree the tools are great and are a real help in making good forecasts.

My post(s) are meant to remind us that as good as they are, we shouldn't worship a particular tool, a particular model because it 'misses my house by the most so now I won't get the storm' and similar reasoning. It is like saying 'I just bought this neaty keen wrench, now my car will run perfectly forever.'

You appear to be quite literate with the use of the various tools and make accurate observations and seem to make good conclusions. Many of the 'lurkers' and members of this board do not, and can not. Not because of a lack of IQ, but because their education and experience lie in different areas. Often, they do NOT realize that models are only one tool, are often wrong and change in a heartbeat.

My goal in posting is to encourage them to question the "why?' and ask 'What else should I know?' when they see the models and forecasts. Your accurate observations and conclusions complement my and other posts and help us see the big picture more clearly. Keep doing it. It is important!