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just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it
You got that right! It isn't saying one point is more likely to be the landfall point, just that at the moment, it is more likely to be some absolute distance from the listed point. A storm, moving north might be closer to Miami at one point than say Ft Pierce, but it isn't saying Miami will be the landfall, just closer at some point in time to the current storm. Ft Pierce would still get the slam bam thankyou maam.
The raised eyebrow is the best reaction to the NHC probabilities forecasts...If it makes you look and get more data, then its done its job. Good observation IHMO
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Re: probs keep going up for the keys too