| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
|
Quote:Scott,
ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.
Last night your forecast, with which I agreed BTW, called for an East Coast Florida track +/- a dozen or so miles from the coast. Are you still leaning that way or are you toying with the idea of a 'Frances' transversal of the Central Florida area?
Me, I'm definitely toying with that idea more and more. I'm not ready to buy that package just yet, but I'm increasingly becoming an 'easy sale' customer. I'm guilty of turning *hope* into *forecast" using the same criteria I warn others against: "Because it hurts ME less" models. I continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Best = fewest people affected,with the least damage