Im afraid that she might actually get a tad more west then that and do what the Nogaps is saying and really giving Tampa a pounding by going all the way to Arcadia then NW to the Bay and into the Gulf by Clearwater late in the afternoon on Sunday. This will bring 80-90mph winds here even with higher gusts near the center. Right now they are forecasting 40-69mph here,, they will nudge it up to 50-70 by the 5am update and if things stay like the models and tracks a tad more w then it will be around 80-90mph. Thing is Frances was moving slow, was 105 at landfall so by time it was in west central florida it was near 70mph tops. Charley remember had winds 85mph with gusts over 100pm 125 miles NNE of Landfall. Jeanne should move about 12-15mph across the state and with landfall near 120mph expect her to drop 30-40mph by time it reaches this area. Over all this is going to be worse then Frances, except the duration will be not quite as long.