Honestly Bruce,
I've been looking at the UKMET every 12 hours or so and this run appears to have shifted more over the right. Early runs looked to take it into the GOM and up into the panhandle like Frances. This run almost looks like it is in better agreement with the NHC than it was before. Granted, the landfall location may be off by up to 50 miles, and this could be huge considering the way Charley worked. To be safe, I would just assume that if you are in the dreaded cone at this point, you should assume the eye will make landfall over you. The only time it looks like you're going to be safe (from the eye, not the overall storm) is once the center gets north of you.