if hurricane monitoring were like the national terror alert status, that's where we'd be. nothing active aside from a distant fish spinner, and that may or may not change over the weekend.
lisa is heading out and away. it's finally beaten shear only to enter a dry enough environment and cooling ssts that have let it's convection deteriorate. still showing flashes of will to develop, and it may become a low-rung hurricane over the next day before turning northeast and emptying the basin.
before lisa gets out of the pool the chances of either of the other concern areas developing aren't very significant.. but worth mentioning.
first is a weak wave near 52w which isn't acting so weak anymore.. in fact it has been throwing more convection over the last couple of days. upper winds are mediocre as it is beneath the base of a broad upper trough, and it is at low latitude and has little amplitude... convergence seems to be resultant of faster easterlies rather than backing in the deep tropics.. nonetheless it has the opportunity to slowly organize as it gets closer to the caribbean and into a more favorable environment. it shouldn't develop tomorrow, but may become a tracked invest or something more over the weekend.
to the west a tropical wave and strong convection near the colombian coast are interacting with a weakening upper low in the southwestern caribbean.. the amplitude of the system has increased as the divergence east of the upper low is enhancing convection. as the upper low reorients the support for strong convection should become greatest midway between jamaica and panama tomorrow.. and over the weekend the low pressure shown in the region may begin to organize. gfs continues to develop a weak, broad low in the area and migrate it up towards the yucatan next week. there should be enough ridging to keep it moving wnw or nw over the next five days, should anything start to consolidate. i do expect an invest in the area at the least, by monday.
basin conditions are as such: persisting SOI positive keeping an NAO mostly positive, progressive/trough splitting pattern active, with low to medium amplitude weather systems in the mid latitudes. the potential for hybrid activity of the east coast continues, and warm caribbean and western gulf waters leave the potential for retrograding upper features to trigger disturbances on their trailing flank, when low level energy is available. the cape verde season is closing out, though waves that make it west of the sharp upper trough off NW africa with any amplitude may still try to develop further west.
what we're waiting for right now is a negative SOI shot to cause some backing in the deep tropics, and cause an october storm in the western caribbean.
HF 2207z30september