Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 18 2004 10:40 PM
October activity

The basin isn't terribly active, but there are a couple of things to watch. Nothing out near Africa, however, so for those of you with the METEOSAT-7 bookmarks in plain view...I think it's safe to say you can put those away for this season.

First feature of note is a small mid/upper low just east of the islands at about 12 N and 55 W. It's nothing much right now, but it cut off from the main flow and, if it were to work its way down to the surface (effectively cutting off the self-inflicted shear going on right now), something could develop. Not terribly likely, but not unlikely either. Several days away from development at the least, if at all.

Convection in the SW Caribbean has subsided for now. There is very little organization to the activity and it is nearing a region of higher shear just to its north, so further development is not likely. However, any time something perks up down there this time of year, it must be watched. The boundary just to its north is stalling and could provide something to watch, but that's just storm mongering at this point. None of the above scenarios has a great shot at developing, though the one in the previous paragraph probably has the greatest shot.

We've also got a weak boundary that should enter the Gulf in the next couple of days. It's not projected to stick around very long -- and with the current pattern, it will be weak and won't have any sort of impetus to move it south -- but bears watching nonetheless.

With time, the odds are dropping off like a rock of another storm -- at least insofar as climatology would suggest. We probably won't see another storm of truly tropical origins this season; instead, anything that develops is likely to be the result of an upper low working its way to the surface or an old frontal boundary stalling out and spinning up a warm-core low. Another storm this year is probably likely; it just won't be for a few days. Let's just hope the overall pattern has changed by then from what it is likely to be in the short-term, lest the Florida coast be in danger once again. Anything that gets past the trough over Cuba right now would be left in a region of weak steering currents...and/or accelerated towards Florida.



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