SOI index is the lead indicator for el nino phase... recently it's giving one heck of a signal. it is mixed over time.. during january positive SOI (the signal that precipitates la nina conditions) was mostly the rule, but pretty much all february a very strongly negative SOI has been the case. a cool SST spike appeared off the west coast of peru and has run all the way out to 130w as of this week.. probably in response to the persistently positive SOI earlier in the winter. the strongly negative SOI will more than likely knock that back down, and possibly set up the onset of another el nino event. i believe clark was mentioning something to this effect earlier.. i'd only been watching SST trends, not the lead signal. this isn't set in stone.. there is more time before the season comes on.. but if the february trend keeps up, we'll be seeing an el nino in '05. HF 0712z25february
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