The water up here can only support a strong tropical storm (at the highest water temp) but's that not to say we can't get a strong hurricane. We have, and history will repeat itself. If a hurricane were to theoretically track up here, you would need one heck of a trof digging down into the east coast, or some other freak weather event. Also, by the time the storm would be up here there would have to be some extra tropical transition of some sort, unless it was racing up here at 60 mph, either way both situations are not good. So you can obviously deduce from this, that there is a much higher likelyhood of a a low intensity tropical feature coming up here then a strong one. The probabilities I do not know...