nah, don't think that one will make the transition, clark. it's the equivalent of november down there now anyway.
i was reading the cpc discussion 6-10 day discussion this morning, yesterday's that is... they've noticed some of the same things pertaining to the suggested caribbean disturbance. today's discussion is much the same deal. should at least be something interesting to look at late next week/weekend.
SOI went positive sunday for the first time in a while, but has gone back to near neutral. we'll need more of that if we're to get out of weak ENSO, or preclude it strengthening. i'm not that certain, but still thinking we won't get more than a skeleton of an el nino signature this season. might hew something off the wacky high numbers at the end of the month in any case.
HF 0114z04may