danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 06 2005 11:59 PM |
|
Re: 'tis the season... before the season
|
Quote:
gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something.
HF 1544z02may
HF, looks like the GFS got the want-to-be Noreaster right. You guys getting a heavy rain for the second or third day in a row. If the GFS was this good with the tropical systems, forecasting landfall locations would be a lot easier.
I wonder if the extra data that they feed into the models during Hurricane season is part of what is throwing the model forecasts off.
Just an observation from the back row.